Gold Holds $3,375 – Ascending Triangle & Fed Dovishness Keep Bulls in Play

Gold hovered near $3,375 on Friday, consolidating just below April’s record $3,500 peak as Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a dovish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell emphasized that risks from a slowing labor market were becoming more pressing than the threat of persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations for a 25bps rate cut in September and raising market bets for three total cuts in 2025. This shift in Fed policy outlook weakened the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, providing solid support for non-yielding assets like gold. 

On the geopolitical front, sentiment remained fragile as Russia launched its largest missile and drone strike on Ukraine in over a month, dimming prospects of a peace deal and driving safe-haven flows into gold. At the same time, ongoing U.S. efforts in talks with European and non-European allies over Ukraine’s security guarantees underscored persistent geopolitical uncertainty. With the Fed signaling a policy shift and global tensions simmering, gold ended the week on a firm footing, maintaining its appeal as both a hedge against monetary easing and geopolitical risk.

XAU/USD TECHNICAL OVERVIEW 

Technical Structure: Gold continues to show a constructive outlook, with the broader trend strongly bullish. On the weekly chart, price action formed a spinning top while finding support at the 20-SMA, reinforcing the long-term uptrend. On the daily timeframe, an inverted head and shoulders pattern has developed, and price is trading above the 20-SMA, indicating sustained bullish momentum.  On lower timeframes, the 4H chart shows a strong bullish candle, while the 1H setup reveals a bullish flag pattern, suggesting potential for further upside. 

Weekly Trend: Strongly Bullish

Intraday Trend/ Intraday Strategy: The technical bias favors buying on breakouts or dips in line with the prevailing trend.

Major Support: 3360, 3348, 3330
Major Resistance: 3380, 3390, 3400